The Manifesto

Aviation 2020 is Ascend’s blueprint for the future. It is our challenge to the aviation industry to address the critical factors influencing the future success of all those involved in commercial aviation – over the next decade and beyond.

Key:
Opportunity
Monitor
Risk

Emissions

In November 2012 there was a temporary suspension of the EU ETS (Emissions Trading Scheme) applying to intercontinental flights.

‘Stopping the clock’ of the EU ETS is designed to help ICAO define a market based mechanism (MBM) for controlling aviation emissions, at a global level. Operators flying to and from the EU will not have to surrender emissions allowances for a year.

Key considerations: Rollover an icon to find out more

2013Opportunity. 'Stop the clock'. Operators flying to and from the EU will not have to surrender emissions allowances for a year.
2015Opportunity. Patch work emissions scheme deal.
2018Opportunity. Global scheme agreement reached.
2020Opportunity The EU achieves its target of cutting emissions by 20% from 1990 levels.

Aviation Cycle

As the industry struggles to exit the downturn, there is a strong case for "now" being a good time to buy. However, aviation is still vulnerable to exogenous shocks and those who demonstrate a greater understanding of an aircraft's investment merits are better placed to seize the real opportunities. 

Getting the cycle right is key to making or losing fortunes

Key considerations: Rollover an icon to find out more

2013Opportunity. Cost and availability of debt financing is holding back the secondary market. Cost of funding is increasing for new deliveries.
2015Opportunity. Downturn expected to be in the rear view mirror. Market values improving and reaching parity with Base Values.
2018Opportunity Market values are expected to rise above Base Values.
2020Opportunity Lessors set to account for 45% of total aircraft market, and cover 50% of the narrowbody market.

Risk Management

Erupting volcanoes and flight bans........ labour disruptions..... swine flu......arab spring... some companies continue to make money through global and regional crises. Some are hit harder than others.

In an uncertain future of aviation, scenario planning and risk management are an essential part to your ongoing investment strategy.

Key considerations: Rollover an icon to find out more

2013Opportunity. Economic growth: sharp contrast of recovery in different regions - Asia leading the way with US following and Europe lagging behind. 'BRIC' countries not all firing on same cylinders.
2015Opportunity. Mature G7 economies facing growth challenge vs. expanding developing nations. 'INVEST' countries expected to be new growth areas.
2018Opportunity. Potential for Africa to have achieved political stability and emerging economies build a mineral wealth of investment.
2020Opportunity. Europe/ US infrastructure constraints (terminals, runways, ATC).

New Markets

Opportunity knocks in Brazil, Russia and China. Open skies, new start–ups and private financing of airports present opportunities to some, threats to others. Across the globe, aviation presents massive risks and massive rewards.

Are you positioned to ignore the hype and grab the real opportunity?

Key considerations: Rollover an icon to find out more

2013Opportunity. Key developing markets growing: China, India, Russia, Brazil, South East Asia.
2015Opportunity. 'INVEST' countries: Indonsesia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Egypt, South Africa and Turkey expected to demonstarte above average growth driven by expanding economies.
2018Opportunity. China opening up airspace to business and general aviation.
2020Opportunity. Almost 40% of the increase in global GDP up until 2020 will come from China (27%) and India (12%).

Next Generation

The size and shape of aircraft is changing. The next generation of single-aisle aircraft are standing by to take off and the regional jet market is set to get very busy as China and Japan enter the fray.

Aircraft manufacturers, financiers and air taxi operators need to separate fact from fiction when planning for the flexibility passengers will demand.

Key considerations: Rollover an icon to find out more

2013Opportunity. Boeing 787 production rate improving. Across the board production rate increases with peak deliveries of current generation aircraft. Roll out: A350 and CSeries first flight herald new opportunities.
2015Opportunity. Whole new world, new aircraft in the sky: CSeries, MRJ, A350 and Neo. New 787 and 777 models defined.
2018Opportunity. Max and Neo in full production swing. C919 in service and MS21 emerges from Russia.
2020Opportunity. Wider choice of aircraft models to combat rising costs. 777-8/9x expected. Chinese widebody launched.
 
Ascend delivers regular updates to these five key drivers, via quarterly webinars and business briefings worldwide.

For more information call Fiona Benharoosh +44 (0)20 8564 6711 or mail: aviation2020@ascendworldwide.com

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