Please click on the links below to view the latest aerospace and space industry presentations from Ascend.
ASCEND AVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: 2013 THE YEAR OF THE SNAKES (AND LADDERS?)
Thursday 7 February, 2013
2012 witnessed a host of market developments. Airlines defied gravity once again by registering global passenger traffic growth in excess of 5%, but yields did not follow suit. A record number of over 500 jet aircraft were permanently retired, with nearly 50 of these being less than 15 years old, fuelling further the debate surrounding the economic useful life of commercial jet aircraft. Demand for new aircraft remains strong. Deliveries in 2013 will generate a 10% increase in demand for funding and take the value of deliveries to over $100 billion.
Where will the funding come from? Has the economic life of an aircraft reduced? Will the markets break the 'snakes and ladders' cycle of 'one step forwards, one step back' and instead deliver a consistent trend of progress and profit in 2013?
Webcast Agenda:
- Review of 2012 and rolling the dice for 2013
- 2013 Funding - Will 2013 be any different from 2012?
- Cargo
- What really matters in the economic life debate?
- Latest insight from the Ascend Review Board
Join Eddy Pieniazek, Director & Global Head of Consultancy, Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals, Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Sarah Conway, Senior Analyst and Rob Morris, Senior Analyst for a special interactive discussion about the immediate prospects for the aviation industry, the manufacturers, airlines, cargo market and the financial sector.
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AVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: 2013 OUTLOOK FOR LATIN AMERICA
Wednesday 30 January, 2013
As we look into 2013, there are many interesting developments taking place in our industry. In particular, we see the Latin America region poised to continue its steady aerospace growth and fleet modernization.
George Dimitroff, Senior Analyst provides a market update for 2013.
Webcast agenda:
- Growth and development of the Latin American fleet
- Trends in values and lease rates of key aircraft types in the region
- What to watch out for in 2013
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As 2012 draws to a close it's time again to review the year for our industry and muse over the outlook for 2013.
As uncertainty continues to prevail over global economies, airlines have seemingly been able to defy gravity again with global passenger traffic growth in excess of 5%. With traffic growth still ahead of capacity, load factors continue to grow. Although fuel prices are still high, they are at least stable and IATA now predict breakeven or net profits at an aggregate level for every global region this year. Demand for new aircraft has remained strong, and with a couple more weeks remaining in December our Ascend Online Fleets database indicates that Airbus and Boeing have already delivered more than 1,100 new aircraft this year with another 40 or so to follow by year end. Add in Bombardier and Embraer and we expect around 1,300 new jets in total to be delivered in 2012. However, the same source shows nearly 2,150 new aircraft orders to date in 2012 and with further announcements like the Pegasus A320 order for 75 A320neo not included, the total could yet grow further. Consequently, the firm order backlog which opened the year at 8,780 aircraft, equivalent to 43% of the operating fleet, has grown further and at the current 9,435 aircraft, represents 44% of the operating fleet. The stored aircraft fleet still appears significant, having grown by around 100 aircraft through the year to 2,555 units, but most of these are ageing, economically redundant aircraft which we do not expect to see return to service. In that context, we have already recorded the permanent retirement of more than 500 jet aircraft this year and nearly 50 of these were less than 15 years old when they “met their maker”. The overall average age of these permanent retirements is 26.7 years, although when adjusted for storage prior to retirement this reduces to 24.4 years. Back in 2008 the average age of permanent retirement was 31.5 years. There seems to be clear evidence that the average economic life of commercial jet aircraft is presently reducing. Whether this is a cyclical or structural trend remains to be seen, but we are sure this is a debate that will run for some time yet.
So what of the outlook for 2013? IATA predicts traffic will continue to increase, although passenger traffic growth of 4.5% is slightly below this year’s figures. Although yields are expected to reduce slightly, they still see global net profits increasing from $6.7 billion this year to $8.4 billion. With uncertainty over global economies continuing, there must be some risk to this forecast and for now 2013 looks like “more of the same”. Ditto for.... to read further please click here to download >
Aviation 2020: Business Briefing
Hong Kong
Tuesday October 30, 2012
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AVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: TURNING THE CORNER
Thursday 30 June 2011
The new aviation cycle is starting to take shape. We're seeing more money in investment markets and premium traffic figures continue to improve. However, higher fuel prices are causing older aircraft to be parked and are putting pressure on airline profits.
It's a recovery – even though it doesn't feel like it…
Eddy Pieniazek, Director & Global Head of Consultancy, Paul Sheridan, Head of Risk Advisory,Christine Jie Yan, Regional Senior Aviation Analyst - Asia and Olga Razzhivina, Manager of Valuation Services discuss the latest trends in the market.
Webcast agenda:
- Latest insight from the Ascend review board
- Where have we been, where are we now?
- How will the fast-paced Asia Commercial Aviation market develop?
- Orders and transactions review
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AVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: Evolution of 2011
Date: Thursday 10 February 2011
Time: 16:00hrs GMT / 11:00hrs EST
Material now available to download >
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Receive your complimentary copy of V1ewPoint, click here - a quarterly review from the Ascend consultancy team, focusing on the current state of the market and the outlook for aircraft and engine values and lease rate trends.
11th Annual Asia Pacific Airfinance Conference
Thursday November 04 - Friday November 05, 2010
Paul Sheridan, Head of Risk Advisory, EMEA
" Navigating the Aircraft Value Cycle"
- Ascend update
- Market update
- Supply and demand
- Cycle indicators
- Values outlook
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Aviation 2020: Business Briefing
Hong Kong
Tuesday November 2, 2010
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8th Annual China AirFinance
Thursday 24th - Friday 25th June 2010
Christine Jie Yan, Regional Senior Analyst
- China Air Travel Demand & Capacity Supply Analysis
- Competition between High Speed Rail & Civil Aviation
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ASCEND AVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: NAVIGATING THE AVIATION CYCLE: It's how you handle the curves that counts
Date: Wednesday 22 September 2010
After months of uncertainty and decline, there are encouraging signs of a recovery in aviation. Positive trends in passenger and cargo traffic coupled with a thaw in aircraft financing are leading to cautious optimism as confidence starts to return.
Available to download Now >
Eddy Pieniazek, Head of Ascend Consultancy, Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals, Andy Golub, Head of Risk Advisory (The Americas) and George Dimitroff, Senior Analyst discuss where we are in the aviation cycle and the outlook for 2011.
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To download the webcast recording, please click hereAVIATION 2020 WEBCAST: Everything has an element of risk - but not everyone sees it
Webcast date: Wednesday April 21st, 2010
As the industry tentatively starts to call time on the downturn, there is a strong case for “now” being a good time to buy. However, aviation is still vulnerable to exogenous shocks and those who demonstrate a greater understanding of an aircraft investment merits are better placed to seize the real opportunities.
Eddy Pieniazek, Head of Ascend Consultancy, Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals, Andy Golub, Head of Risk Advisory The Americas and Paul Sheridan, Head of Risk Advisory EMEA discuss how risk in investing in aviation can be successfully measured and managed and translated into profitable opportunity.
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EU ETS: Implications for the aviation industry
Tuesday March 9th, 2010
Gary Crichlow, Senior Aviation Analyst
- Overview EU ETS
- Credit risk. Cost of compliance vs. non- compliance
- Asset risk. EU ETS effect on residual values
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Aviation 2020: Business Briefing
Hong Kong
Tuesday November 3, 2009
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Aviation 2020 Webcast: New horizons: towards a brighter future
October 29, 2009
08:00am - 09:00am (GMT)
16:30pm - 17:30pm (GMT)
The global economic storm has battered a beleaguered aviation industry over the past 18 months. Passenger traffic and asset values have been eroded. As a new decade approaches, are we on our way out of the crisis and have the right lessons been learned?
Aviation 2020: Business Briefing
New York
Friday September 24, 2009
Inside Track: Ascend Online Training Webinar
Tuesday 30 June and Thursday 09 July 2009
Duration: 60 minutes
Join Andy Golub, Head of Risk Advisory at Ascend for an interactive and online training presentation focusing on Ascend Online's historical aircraft value matrices and the analytic views we use to identify and quantify the market forces at play.
This is the first in the series of Ascend Online user training webinars, designed to help you obtain optimum usage and benefits from the database to feed into your business processes.
Topics for discussion include:
- Historical Market Values, Base Values and Lease Rates, visualize the trend
- Base Value methodology, consistency for the long term
- Reading the market cycle through the Market Value / Base Value ratio
- Constant aircraft age value trend analysis, how age impacts values
- Picking out the best and the worst performers from past downturns and following them through the subsequent recoveries
Please email valuations@ascendworldwide.com for your complimentary copy.
Corporate, Air Taxi and Personal Jets Conference
Wednesday March 18 - Thursday March 19, 2009: London
Gary Crichlow, Aviation Analyst
"Considerations in Expanding the Corporate Air Taxi Market in Europe"
- Defining the European corporate air taxi market
- Considerations in expanding the market
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11th Annual European AirFinance Conference
Sunday January 24 - Tuesday January 27, 2009: Dublin
Peter Morris, Chief Economist
"Oil and Aviation Economics"
- Oil Prices?
- Impact of economic conditions?
- Developing and developed markets?
- Aviation vs. ‘the Rest’?
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3rd China Aeroleasing Summit
Wednesday November 12 - Thursday November 13, 2008: China
Eddy Pieniazek, Head of Consultancy
"Can Chinese leasing companies go global?"
- Why should Chinese lessors go global?
- Who will be the leasing competition?
- SWOT Analysis for Chinese lessors
- Asset Values
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AFJ 9th Annual Asia-Pacific Airfinance
Thursday November 6, 2008: China
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director
"Green wings: The impact of environmentalism"
- C02 emission per capital
- Carbon through 2020
- The European Emissions Trading Scheme
- EU Allowance price performance
- Modelling the impact of carbon credits
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Investing in Aircraft & Engines Asia-Pacific - Briefing Day
Wednesday November 5, 2008: China
Eddy Pieniazek, Director of Consultancy
"Short-term Forecasts for Popular Models"
- The Market Environment
- Narrowbody Market Values
- Newer widebodies
- What’s happening to values right now?
- Better prospects for in-production aircraft?
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2nd Annual Aircraft Valuation and Investment Conference
Wednesday November 5 - Thursday November 6, 2009: Ireland
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis
"Freighter Aircraft"
- Latest Traffic Data
- Fleet in Service and Storage
- Backlog of new builds
- Market for conversions
- Values Movements
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Ascend Business Briefing: Hong Kong 2008
Tuesday November 4, 2008: Hong Kong
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director
Eddy Pieniazek, Director and Head of Consultancy
Shamin Mughal, Statistical Analyst
"Values Face the Crunch"
- The market outlook
- Capacity cuts: implications for portfolios
- Asset value movements and trends
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Aircraft & Engine Finance Leasing Conference USA
Wednesday October 22 - Thursday October 23, 2008: Las Vegas
Les Weal, Head of Valuations
"What deals are being done?"
- The lead up to the crisis
- A grim business environment?
- Commercial aircraft transactions
- Cutting capacity
- Should there be investment opportunities?
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Inaugural Australasia Airfinance Conference 2008
Monday September 1, 2008: Sydney
Peter Morris, Chief Economist
"Macroeconomic trends in the Aviation Industry"
- Demand Drivers - GDP and Price
- Airline Industry Structure
- Profitability
- Traffic and Growth
- Fleet and fuel
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Ascend Business Briefing: San Francisco 2008
Thursday Jukly 10, 2009: San Francisco
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director
George Dimitroff, Senior Aviation Analyst
Sandeep Saujani, Head of Ascend USA
Anna-Karin Bjorklund, Account Manger West Coast
"Dealing in a market under pressure"
- Gauging the market cycle
- Outlook for aircraft and engine values
- Managing risk in turbulent times
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Ascend Business Briefing - Chicago 2008
Tuesday July 8, 2008: Chicago
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director, Ascend
Les Weal, Head of Valuations, Ascend
George Dimitroff, Senior Aviation Analyst, Ascend
"Dealing in a market under pressure"
- Gauging the market cycle
- Outlook for aircraft and engine values
- Managing risk in turbulent times
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2008 European Summer School of International Aviation Finance
Wednesday July 2 - Friday July 4, 2008: UK
Eddy Pieniazek, Director of Consultancy
"Industry Overview"
- About Us
- Demand vs Supply
- Aircraft Values
- Ascend Takeaway
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6th Annual China Airfinance Conference
Thursday June 26 - Friday June 27, 2008: China
Eddy Pieniazek, Director of Consultancy
"Outlook for Chinese Aviation Industry"
- Global Industry Outlook
- China Fleet Growth
- Investment in China
- Airline Consolidation
- Traffic Growth
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Freighter World Conference 2008
Sunday June 8 - Tuesday June 10, 2008: Turkey
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis
"Freighter Availability – Market Overview"
- Global Cargo Traffic & Capacity Growth
- Surge in price per barrel in 2008…how long at these levels?
- Causes for Concern
- The Older Generation - still 780 left in service
- Jet Freighter 10 year Forecast Deliveries
- The Cycle - Passenger Market Values Declining
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Aviation 2020 Webcast: Flying into Headwinds
Webcast date: Thursday May 22, 2008
Duration: 45 minutes
As airlines grapple with capital concerns, expensive credit and record-breaking fuel prices, the industry faces an increasingly taxing and turbulent phase. In this climate of challenged growth and lacklustre performance by many of the world’s airlines, Ascend presents the latest in its series of Aviation 2020 industry outlook webcasts: Flying into Headwinds
Eddy Pieniazek, Head of Consultancy; Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals; and Peter Morris, Chief Economist evaluate the opportunities and risks presented by today’s volatile market.
- Key industry drivers and changes in global aviation markets
- Consolidation - not the panacea for all ills: the outlook for the US
- What ’ s hot and what ’ s not: the latest review of market trends, aircraft values and lease rates
- Eye on transactions: Looking beyond the horizon
- Winners and losers: Ascend predicts …
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Aircraft Leasing and Finance Asia
Wednesday April 30, 2008: Singapore
Peter Morris, Chief Economist
Assessing the Forecasted Long Haul LCCs Business Model
- Reviewing the business model for long haul LCC: true long haul or medium long haul
- Sustainability of the Long Haul LCC model from financing point of view
- Financial viability and potential ROI for the business model
- Potential ROI and forecasted growth
- Case Review examples
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Aviation 2020 Webcast: Uncertain Times Call for Certain Action
Webcast date: Thursday November 1, 2007
Webcast time: 15:00 GMT
Events of recent weeks on both sides of the Atlantic have caused ripples of uncertainty amongst aviation financiers. Whilst the ramifications of the current credit crunch on the industry are as yet unclear, further decline in consumer confidence may potentially expedite the next phase of the aviation cycle.
Changing Fortunes: Global industry outlook and core trends to monitor
- Appraising the signs of a slowdown in airline fortunes
- What opportunities lie ahead for the brave and the bold?
- Assessing the impact on aircraft values and liquidity
- In a weaker market, what aircraft types would be laid down?
To download the presentation, please click here
Aviation 2020 Business Briefing: New York 2007
Thursday June 7, 2007: Plaza Athenee, 37 East 64th Street, New York
Introduction to Aviation 2020
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director
The Balance Sheet: profitably negotiating the aviation cycle
Size Matters: the next generation of aircraft take flight
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Ascend
Eddy Pieniazek, Director and Head of Consultancy, Ascend
Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals, Ascend
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Aviation 2020 Business Briefing: London 2007
Monday May 21, 2007: Tower 42, Old Broad Street, London
Introduction to Aviation 2020
Balancing Act: delivering sustainability's triple bottom line
Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director, Ascend
The Balance Sheet: profitably negotiating the aviation cycle
Peter Morris, Chief Economist, Ascend
Eddy Pieniazek, Director and Head of Consultancy, Ascend
Les Weal, Head of Valuations and Appraisals, Ascend
Size Matters: the next generation of aircraft take flight
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis, Ascend
Paul Scullen, Surveyor, Ascend
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VLJ - Focusing in on the facts
Sunday April 22, 2007: Habtoor Grand Resort and Spa, Dubai
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis
"Very Light Jets: More Bang for the Buck?"
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5th Annual Cargo Aircraft & Operations Conference
January 2007: Rome
Chris Seymour, Head of Market Analysis
"The World's Freighter Fleet"
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Ascend / Barlow Lyde & Gilbert Business Briefing
Thursday November 9, 2006: London
Peter Morris, Chief Economist
"The Market Implications of Intergrating Aviation into the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)"
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