To succeed, Elon Musk must get over maiden hurdle says Ascend. As the future of commercial space flight rides on Falcon 9
Wednesday 24 March, 2010, London, New York, Hong Kong
Ascend (www.ascendworldwide.com), the aerospace specialists, have released success rates for maiden rocket launches, as the space world prepares to hold its breath when Falcon 9 blasts off.
The launch of Space Exploration Technologies’ (SpaceX) Falcon 9 rocket follows President Obama’s order that NASA find a cheaper commercial alternative to launch cargo and astronauts into orbit. So, the success of Falcon 9 would launch the commercialisation of low-Earth orbit transport.
Elon Musk, the founder and chief executive of SpaceX, has said it’s rare for a new vehicle to succeed right away, and this is supported by Ascend’s data.
In fact, 63% of orbital maiden rocket launches end in failure.
However, Ascend’s senior space analyst, David Todd, warns, “Early flights of new rockets are inherently risky. Our records show that maiden flights of new rockets, since 1990, are subject to a failure rate in excess of 63% [please see table 1].
“And if the first flight is a failure, the second flight has around a four in 10 (40%) chance of failing as well.
“Falcon 9’s originator, the internet and rocket entrepreneur Elon Musk, might well suggest that the Falcon 9 is a derivative or radically modified launch vehicle as it uses the engines and other parts of the already flying Falcon 1.
“Ascend’s figures show that in this category, maiden launches still fail at a rate of 17.9%, with the chance of an unsuccessful second flight following a first flight failure being 1 in 4 (25%).”
However, Ascend believes that with two radically modified stages, the Falcon 9 should be classed as a new vehicle, with all the risk that this entails.
Todd adds, “Elon Musk has had experience of early flight failures before, given that the first three launches of his smaller Falcon 1 rocket all failed before it eventually succeeded on its fourth flight.”
Having won a NASA demonstration contract, the larger Falcon 9 is set to launch unmanned cargo vessels to the International Space Station in addition to its role as a commercial satellite launcher. These NASA launch services could become very lucrative, but first Falcon 9 has to get past its hazardous maiden flight.
