Posted October 14, 2008 4:02 PM
By Chris Seymour
Aviation 2020 Webcast: In The Eye of The Storm
YOUR QUESTIONS ANSWERED.
What is the outlook for the 767-300ER in light of tanker uncertainty?
The US Air Force tanker decision is a military matter and has no bearing on the market for airliner 767s, what it will determine is how long the 767 family stays in production. Boeing is to build more 767-300ERs for JAL and ANA in 2010 to cover for 787 delays, but these are likely to be amongst the last off the line for the passenger version.
That said, the real story behind the 767-300ER at the moment is secondary demand. Six months to a year ago it was difficult to find an available airframe, today there are 24 parked and to be placed. Despite the delays to 787 deliveries, there is now overcapacity in the 300ER market.
With the number of Classics flooding the market what do you believe the value of these aircraft will be?
The 737 Classics are one of the most watched families at the moment, with over 220 already announced as being cut from airline fleets, mainly in the US. Market Values are falling (by up to 10%) and the oldest 737-300s (1984) are now below $5 million (half-life).
The market is becoming differentiated between US domestic specifications and higher specification aircraft (for example EASA compliant). These latter aircraft will be the most sought-after, especially younger examples with 3C1 engines. Even in the higher fuel price environment, the Classics are still more economic aircraft than the previous generation (eg 737-200s) and at lower values may be more affordable by smaller airlines.
When do you think next-gen NBs will enter the market?
This is a key question and one to which there still seems to be no firm answer, but given the higher fuel price environment, a question which perhaps has more urgency. Both Airbus and Boeing, with their large backlogs for the A320 and 737 families, have lacked an incentive to launch all-new programmes, especially as they concentrate on development of the 787 and A350.
The dilemma facing the industry is whether to go for a more radical solution (such as the open rotor engine) which would give the best improvement in fuel burn (some say 25-30%), or a more conservative solution (perhaps 12-15% better), but which is available sooner. At stake are thousands of sales over decades, plus billions of dollars of development.
Both manufacturers have been waiting to see how engine technology develops and it is becoming clearer as to what the engine manufacturers intend to do. Pratt & Whitney is proposing its geared-turbofan technology, being introduced on the CSeries and MRJ, Airbus is testing the PW1000G on an A340 and has not ruled out putting it on the A320 as an interim solution.
CFM is proposing an advanced turbofan for the mid 2010s with an open rotor possible later, whilst Rolls-Royce is studying both turbofans and open rotors. The latter present the most technical challenges and would have to be a rear-mounted engine due to the size of the blades.
It is looking likely that it will be at the very end of the next decade (2018-2020?) before any all-new programme will enter service.
What’s your outlook for larger turboprops?
The larger turboprops such as the ATR72 and Q400 have seen a resurgence in orders during the past few years, taking the backlog to around 250. The turboprop economics are unbeatable on short sectors and the Q400 in particular can almost match jet flight-times on routes of an hour or so.
These aircraft are being used to upsize from 50-seater turboprops, replace earlier variants (e.g. ATR72-500 replacing -200s) and in some cases replacing RJs (e.g. Q400s replacing CRJ700s at Horizon and 146s at Flybe). With the long-term price of oil likely to be around $80-100 per barrel, this should keep pressure on the smaller regional jets going forward, and make turboprops of all sizes relatively favorable
Leave a comment