Oil up, taxes up, terrorist threat up, environmental pressure up; yet aviation continues to soar
London, 7th November 2006
It has been a turbulent decade for aviation, but the industry has weathered the storm
An analysis of airline fleet data from Ascend, the world’s leading provider of information and consultancy to the global aerospace industry, reveals just how strong the recovery has been. Ascend’s unique view on the industry with records going back over 40 years, shows that the decade from 1996-2006 while fraught with challenges highlights the aviation industry’s resilience and precipitates what is expected to be another period of strong growth.
Aviation has faced rising fuel bills -- the cost of oil has risen 250% since 1996; a decade of increasing taxes; a dramatically increased terrorist threat, and strong pressure from consumers and governments to reduce its environmental impact. But with fleet growth strong and aircraft orders are at record levels, the industry appears to be taking these continuing challenges in its stride.
Order book for low-cost aircraft show 1315% growth
According to Ascend, the rise of the low-cost carriers has driven fleet expansion over the past decade. Worldwide, the low-cost fleet has leapt 347% since 1996, and currently stands at 1855 aircraft. The confidence of the low-cost carriers is also reflected in their order book; in 1996 it stood at 94 aircraft, today budget carriers have 1330 planes on order, representing a 1315% rise.
“Passengers, aircraft manufacturers, their suppliers, airports have all benefited from the successful emergence and rapid expansion of the low-cost airlines,” says Gehan Talwatte, Managing Director, Ascend. “And it could not have come at a better time for aviation, bolstering the industry in tough times. Now with markets in Asia and the Middle East booming the industry is looking strong, and well placed to face the challenges of the next decade.”
Rising in the East
Ascend’s analysis reveals just how strong the surge in Asia is. The total fleet in Asia, including major carriers and low-cost airlines, has grown 52% over the decade. However, it is the order book for Asian airlines that reveals the true story: from 616 aircraft on order in 2004, to 1842 to date in 2006; up 200% in just two years. It is a similar story in the Middle East where the fleet has grown 40% since 1996 and the number of planes on order is 120% higher than a decade ago.
Among European and US airlines the past decade has been a tale of rapid expansion, followed by retrenchment post 9/11, then a period of steady recovery. The strength of that recovery can be seen in the number of planes in service today among European carriers, which have grown 39% over the decade. In the US the recovery has not been so strong, but Ascend’s data shows both orders and fleet sizes now beginning to grow.
Record orders
Worldwide orders for Western-built aircraft are at record levels. Fuelled by expansion in Asia, 2005 was a record year with 2344 orders placed. To date in 2006 there have been orders for 1910 aircraft, this represents a substantial recovery from 2002 when in the wake of 9/11 when just 664 new aircraft were ordered worldwide.
-ENDS-
Fleet Growth 1996-2006
Low-cost carriers worldwide
Year | In Service | On Order |
1996 | 415 | 94 |
1997 | 450 | 101 |
1998 | 514 | 171 |
1999 | 604 | 214 |
2000 | 695 | 309 |
2001 | 769 | 282 |
2002 | 942 | 442 |
2003 | 1093 | 663 |
2004 | 1352 | 727 |
2005 | 1591 | 1173 |
2006 (to date) | 1855 | 1330 |
Year | In Service | On Order |
1996 | 2664 | 660 |
1997 | 2833 | 668 |
1998 | 2813 | 487 |
1999 | 2833 | 421 |
2000 | 2891 | 451 |
2001 | 3032 | 470 |
2002 | 3185 | 421 |
2003 | 3394 | 501 |
2004 | 3608 | 616 |
2005 | 3848 | 1472 |
2006 (to date) | 4040 | 1842 |
Year | In Service | On Order |
1996 | 697 | 104 |
1997 | 697 | 103 |
1998 | 704 | 100 |
1999 | 729 | 62 |
2000 | 743 | 44 |
2001 | 746 | 83 |
2002 | 785 | 73 |
2003 | 813 | 147 |
2004 | 866 | 172 |
2005 | 925 | 232 |
2006 (to date) | 978 | 228 |
Year | In Service | Stored | On Order |
1996 | 8247 | 969 | 1377 |
1997 | 8353 | 905 | 1838 |
1998 | 8608 | 904 | 2225 |
1999 | 8922 | 1075 | 2319 |
2000 | 9287 | 1109 | 3008 |
2001 | 9098 | 1809 | 2692 |
2002 | 9116 | 1893 | 2110 |
2003 | 9200 | 1914 | 1905 |
2004 | 9379 | 1832 | 1561 |
2005 | 9261 | 1796 | 1381 |
2006 (to date) | 9254 | 1536 | 1473 |
Year | In Service | On Order |
1996 | 4392 | 581 |
1997 | 4565 | 782 |
1998 | 4864 | 1063 |
1999 | 5148 | 1153 |
2000 | 5414 | 1063 |
2001 | 5256 | 853 |
2002 | 5395 | 842 |
2003 | 5445 | 903 |
2004 | 5630 | 860 |
2005 | 5819 | 1290 |
2006 (to date) | 6108 | 1313 |
Figures include all Western-built aircraft (jets and turboprops) but not business jets
Orders for Western-built aircraft
Year | Orders |
1996 | 1241 |
1997 | 1425 |
1998 | 1494 |
1999 | 1200 |
2000 | 1628 |
2001 | 985 |
2002 | 664 |
2003 | 897 |
2004 | 939 |
2005 | 2344 |
2006 (to date) | 1910 |
